And the snow fell, a little

Early November teased us a little bit with measurable snowfall that apparently has stalled. Not to worry, ski fans and snow junkies, it will snow again. I spent some time looking at what winter may look like here in the Coulee.

The discussions about La Niña, a recurring event that has a direct result on global weather, are stating some weaknesses, with “only a 65-75 percent chance that it will continue at least through the winter. Similar to last winter, the event is predicted to be relatively weak.” Of course, this is a long-term prediction, not a two-day weather forecast.

The Washington State Climatologist has said December will likely be somewhat mild though, but goes on to share this from their December Report and Outlook: “The winter (December-January-February, or DJF) Climate Prediction Center outlook is quite different from the December expectations for WA State. Winter temperatures, on average, are anticipated to be colder than normal for the entire state. For precipitation, wetter than normal conditions are expected. The December outlook’s contrast to the DJF seasonal outlook is a good reminder of the intraseasonal variability that can still be expected even when a cooler and perhaps wetter than usual winter is probable due to La Niña conditions.”

The state climatologist had an interesting article about the timing of seasons and their shifting. Prompted by some questions they received, their research covered a time span from the 1940s to present. There were adjustments made to the time period of 1948 to 1951, as it was a relatively cold period, specifically on the west side of the Cascades. The work looked at first freezes at rural weather stations on both the west and east sides of the state. These stations are some distance from large urban areas like Seattle and Spokane. These first freezes can vary wildly from station to station — up to a few months.

The results of the study are interesting and provide confirmation of shifting seasons. “For west side stations, the average date of the first freeze at the end of the record is about 7-9 days later than at the beginning, depending on whether one averages individual trends versus averaging the mean date of the five stations. For the six eastern Washington stations, the first freeze is now occurring about 14 days later.”

The report further states, “The shift on the east side is consistent with the overall changes in mean minimum temperatures over the period of 1948-2017 which have risen about 2˚F in the Central Basin climate division for the months of September and October.”

Focusing on the home weather station, time to take a look at what November ushered in weather wise. As I stated above, we had our first snowfall for the winter of 2017-18. I measured a total of 4.6 inches of snow on the fifth and sixth of the month. We also had rain, and I measured a total of 1.75 inches of precipitation, including melted snow. We average 1.24 inches of precipitation for November. Record snowfall in November was 17.5 inches in 1955.

Temperatures for the month were a high of 57.8˚F on the 22nd and a low of 22.9˚F on the 6th. Our mean was 39.5˚F. The all-time mean for November is 37.5˚F, and the all-time high was 69˚F in 1989. The all-time low was -10˚F in 1985.