Hot and dry with potential for wildland fire - Better weather tech on the way

Some have asked what we can expect this summer — weather and wildfire conditions. I’ll share what the Washington state climatologist states in the most recent monthly report: “The National Climate Prediction Center (CPC) May outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures across the entire state. Slightly lower chances of above normal temperatures exist for a pocket in the northeast corner. The May precipitation outlook is split with equal chances of above, below or equal precipitation for the entire state. The CPC May-June-July outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state. Chances of above normal temperatures are highest in the central and southern portions of the state. The precipitation outlook has increased chances of below normal precipitation for the entire state.”

The National Interagency Fire Center, Predictive Services office in Boise, Idaho, provides information on what conditions are likely to occur in the next few months. Here are their comments for our summer: “A normal start to the Western fire season is expected elsewhere. High pressure is already beginning to develop along the West Coast and will be the main feature going forward. This should produce warmer and drier than average conditions along the entirety of the West Coast for the next several months. This coupled with the development of a significant grass crop in the lower elevations and an early melting of the mountain snowpack is expected to prove to be problematic in the periods (July and August) that are just outside of this outlook period.”

The future maps that are available for July and August on their website show Significant Wildland Fire Potential to be above normal for our region of the Northwest.

There are many weather forecasting products available to citizens. The simple daily and multiday forecasts that are seen in popular media, on websites and in the newspaper. These forecasts are most common; those that we interact with regularly. There are many more advanced and specific forecasts. A few examples are agriculture, aviation and severe weather.

At the federal level, a new development is underway to enhance our severe weather forecasting and announcements. The National Weather Service is working on the next generation of severe weather and warning system that should be more specific. The Forecast a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a proposed new system to keep us, the public, aware of extreme weather events occurring near us. It has several components. In particular, the proposed “threat grids,” which can be further enhanced with the flow of new weather data and weather spotter information, will be significant.

Threat grids will support the development of future products that address high-impact, non-severe weather events, such as lightning and strong winds that are below-severe limits. For those who live in Tornado Country, this new program will greatly improve the graphics used by live television forecasts and weather service websites. More features will be provided for a tornado warning area and show better details of known tornado tracks. All this should really help decision makers and elected officials with their storm edicts.

Here is the weather data for the month of April 2020. All this data is from my home weather station. April was generally dry with only 0.27 inches of precipitation measured. The all-time mean is 0.86 inches; the all-time maximum was 2.31 inches in 1948. We have had snowfall in April – 1 inch back in 1955. The high temperature for April was 76.3˚F on the 29th, the low was 23.0˚F on the 2nd, the mean for the month was 50.9˚F. The all-time high was 92˚F in 1936, the all-time low was 20˚F in 1936, and the all-time mean is 49.9˚F.