Drought, La Niña and two books

Together we have experienced another astronomical event, we are now in autumn. Temperatures are falling and many of us are breathing a slight sigh of relief. Wildfire smoke has dissipated, yet we are still in drought. Nationally, our region is in the sixth percentile of Exceptional Drought, also known as “D4.” Areas to our south are still burning. The largest wildfire still active, the Dixie Fire in Northern California, is well over 900,000 acres. Here in Washington state, the Schneider Springs Fire near Yakama is 106,000 acres.

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the varying temperature phenomena of the Tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Nino/La Nina system, is emerging into La Nina again. This system affects much of our global climate. Climatologists watch this system carefully. Up-to-date measurements are pointing at a La Nina event this fall-winter. For the Inland Northwest, our diminutive region of the planet, may see cooler temperatures and more precipitation. Precipitation in the form of winter snowstorms – we shall see.

Considering wildfires and storms, I’m reminded of two books written by the author George R. Stewart. Stewart was born in 1895. He was educated at some of nation’s finest universities. He became a professor of English literature at the University of California, Berkeley. He was much more than professor — he was a historian, novelist, toponymist and a founding member of the American Name Society. It was in his later years that I met him and his wife through a good friend — twice, in fact. By this time, the early ’70s, he had nearly completed his writing — his earliest book in 1930 and the final in 1979. He wrote a total of 28 titles.

“Storm” was first published in 1941 — the year the United States entered World War 2 — a type of global storm created by madmen. “Fire” came out in 1948 — I was just an infant. Later, as an adult, I would spend 15 years of my career on seasonal duty with western wildfire Incident Command Teams. “Storm” was recently republished by New York Review of Books Press with a forward by Nathaniel Rich.

As you begin this book, consider this, the protagonist isn’t a person. The protagonist is a storm – a thing of immense air and water vapor affected and sculpted by atmospheric pressure, topography and the jet stream. The people in the book are like us. When we find ourselves in an event that is utterly and absolutely out of our control, we hunker down. We tolerate the event around us; we cannot change it. Part of our lives are shaped in those hours and days. All the while we hope to pull through without harm to us or others.

In “Storm,” a name appears: Maria. It is the storm’s name. Stewart and his novel “Storm” are credited as the motivation for naming storms. The United States officially started the practice in 1953.

Stewart’s “Fire” captures early fall conditions of a Sierra Nevada Forest and the ultimate aftermath of a lightning storm. Our protagonist, once again, is a thing, a thing of heat, fuel and air. Yes, the fire has a name – Spitcat. The people in the story — forest rangers, smoke jumpers, fire lookouts — reflect the era when this novel was written. It’s post World War 2. Stewart captures the essence of a California forest. Though the name of the forest is fictional, the nature of a living forest is real. The trees, the animals, living separately from each other yet, all are truly interconnected and are part of a larger, organic, functioning ecological system. In his research for “Fire,” Stewart actually spent time with the Forest Service fighting fire.

I encourage our local Friends of the Library to add the above titles to the Grand Coulee Public Library. There are other titles that Stewart wrote as well.

Let us take a look into possible near-future weather. The National Climate Prediction Center is stating that for October, November and December, our region has an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures, and an above-normal chance for participation (40-50% chance). Also, the ENSO La Nina development odds of emerging this fall are 70-80%. Might be wise to do some prep work on your winter equipment and tools etc.

Time to review the weather data for the month of September 2021. A reminder, all data is gathered at my home weather station. Precipitation for the month was 1.03 inches of rain. We had 0.75 inches on the 11th and three other rain events through the remainder of the month. The mean rainfall for September is 0.49 inches. The all-time maximum was 2.0 inches in 1985. The high temperature was 90.1˚F on the 7th. The low was 41.9˚ on the 16th, and the mean was 63.2˚. The all-time high was 104˚ in 1938, all-time low was 30˚ in 1983. The all-time mean is 63.8˚.