It's winter – let's consider drought

Before we visit the final 2021 weather data for our region, a dryer, warmer year, we will explore the subject of drought — something we’ve been experiencing for several months now.

When we study weather events like tornadoes, thunderstorms, or hurricanes, we need to add drought as a weather event as well. What makes drought different is its longevity and its beginning and ending periods. Drought is the near total absence of rainwater for a prolonged period of time. Looking at our precipitation amounts for 2021 helps to tell this drought story.

There are four methods of measuring drought, according to climatologists. Meteorological drought is a dominating dry weather pattern and can start and end quickly. Hydrological drought is when a low water supply becomes evident, taking a long time to develop. Agricultural drought is when crops are affected, and socioeconomical drought impacts the supply and demand for commodities, caused by drought.

Our region was in drought conditions much of the year. Fortunately, conditions are improving. As I write this column, we are listed in the D1 Moderate Drought or D2 Severe Drought. These readings are dependent on your specific location in our region of Washington state.

Yep, still in drought. How could that be after we’ve had rain and snow? The elements that place us in these conditions depend on current weather patterns and the result of weather pattens from several previous months. A measurement used by climatologists to address drought is called the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PDSI). The PDSI, “attempts to measure the duration and intensity of the long-term drought-inducing circulation patterns.” For short-term drought, the Palmer Z Index is used, which “measures short-term drought on a monthly scale.” There are a few other Palmer Indices. I’ll let you delve further into these Palmer indices, if you are interested.

With the above information fresh in our minds, I’ll share a few projections based on modeling conducted by the National Centers for Environmental Information, Drought Termination and Amelioration. Their website is interactive if you care to use it.

These outlooks are for our region at the end of February 2022. First scenario is under “Normal Conditions.” The projected PHDI for the end of February shows Mild Drought, lacking nearly 1.5 inches of precipitation. The second scenario is “Cold and Wet.” The projected PHDI for the end of February shows Moderately Moist, with nearly 3 inches of precipitation to the positive. With La Niña in place, the cold and wet scenario may become a reality.

Let’s move on to the weather assessment, this time for all of 2021. I’ve created a chart addressing monthly high and low temperatures, precipitation, and snow amounts for the previous year. We saw a new record event in 2021; the high temperature for June measured 112˚F at the official weather station. That temperature broke the previous June high temperature of 105˚F in 2015.

Looking skyward for January 2022, our friends at EarthSky.com share this: “Following new moon on January 2, 2022, the young moon, waxing crescent moon will return to the west after sunset. As seen from around the globe, the moon will pass 4 planets. Bright Venus will be exceedingly near the sunset glare … will you see it? Maybe. Try binoculars if you don’t spot it. Mercury, too, will be difficult to see when the moon passes by on January 3. But on January 4 and 5, if your sky is clear, you’ll easily see the young moon near Saturn and Jupiter.” The January full Moon will occur on the 17th of the month.

May everyone experience a healthy and positive 2022 – Happy New Year.