Citizen Science, ENOS and weather disasters

This month I'll start with an interesting research project. The study involved data gathered more than 200 years ago. For the period of 1826 through 1872, citizens in New York state made observations and collecting data on basic natural events. Those early observers used thermometers and rain gauges; they also watched seasonal changes unfold. These citizens documented when certain species of birds arrived, specific trees started to leaf out, when strawberries ripened and when wheat harvests began.

Those early Citizen Scientists had no idea that in the early 21st Century research scientists would use the data they so diligently gathered for 46 years. Scientists with the study compare that historic data with recent data from across New York for the period of 2009-2017.

To summarize the results of the study, this is what the researchers discovered. "Citizen science observations across two centuries reveal a dramatic, climate-driven shift to earlier leaf out and flowering. The magnitude of advancement varies across settings, species and functional groups, and illustrates how long-term monitoring and citizen science efforts are invaluable for ecological forecasting and discovery. Having a baseline now in the face of such rapid change is really critical."

As our climate continues its course of change, the study of cyclic and seasonal natural phenomena, especially in relation to climate and plant and animal life, known as "phenology," will help us understand what changes are taking place, where those changes are occurring and the significance of those changes on living things. There are many opportunities for you to participate in Citizen Science activities. The U.S.A. National Phenology Network is one of them at https://www.usanpn.org.

A Citizen Science program that I've been involved with for over 14 years is called the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS). I know, that's a real mouth full to say! This program requires a once-a-day report on rainfall, snowfall or hail. What I like about this program, you can call up your station's past data that is all plotted and assembled for your viewing. The program started in Colorado, then grew nationally. Now it is international with reports submitted daily from Canada and the Caribbean at https://www.cocorahs.org.

Let's take a look at the dynamic El Niño/ La Niña phenomena in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, a.k.a. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Currently, there's about a 60-percent chance La Niña, cool Tropical Pacific surface waters, will be continuing through this summer. It also appears there is about a 66-percent chance La Niña will be around through year's end. Our generally cool Spring and early Summer weather were, in part, affected by the ENSO. This is just the third time since ENSO observations began that La Niña has been around this far into the year.

The National Centers for Environmental Information provides interesting data and information. Here's a snippet from a report. As of July 11th, the nation has witnessed nine separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters. Those were tornado outbreaks, damaging hail events and extreme drought. The June precipitation average across the nation was 2.33 inches. That is 0.60 inches below the average and ties with 1930 as the 12th driest June. Recent weather-related disasters have hit St. Louis, Missouri and portions of Kentucky.

We witnessed a wave of heat in July. Not only us, but several regions around the globe also saw new heat records. Taking a look at the data for the month of July , from my home weather station, the high temperature was 109.1˚F on the 28th and a low of 47.9˚F on the 5th. The mean was 76.5˚F. The all-time high temperature for July is 113˚F back in 1939. The all-time low was 32˚F in 1983 and the all-time mean is 73.2F. Eight days in a row of 100˚F or higher temperatures at the home weather station. July was on the dry side, aggravating our persistent drought that we've been in for a couple of years now. I measured 0.80 inches of precipitation for the month of July. Last year, was zero, so we improved over that statistic. The mean for July is 0.45 inches.

As I mentioned, we are still in drought conditions in our region. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) states that for our region "drought will persist." For the three-month period of August through October, the CPC also shows the probability of higher-than-normal temperatures and an equal change of below- or above-normal precipitation.

On August 11th we will have a full moon. The August full moon is called The Sturgeon Moon. If you are up late, the moon will appear very close to Saturn in the night sky. At its closest point the moon and Saturn will have a separation of about four degrees.