Asteroids and winter 2022-23

Wondering why NASA sent a car-sized satellite to crash into an asteroid? Let’s take a look and see why.

An “impact event” is when an astronomical object, like an asteroid, causes measurable effects on impact. When an asteroid hits Earth, depending on its size, it will, and they have, caused measurable results to many things, including the weather. Earth is regularly hit by meteoroids, the things we call meteors. Meteors are a meter or less (over 3.3 feet) in size. We see them shooting across the night sky all the time. If they make it through our atmosphere and hit the ground, they are meteorites.

Asteroids, well, they are a totally different level of concern. The most recent asteroid to hit Earth was in 2013. The event occurred near the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia. The asteroid was estimated to be 20 meters in size (66 feet) in diameter. As it entered Earth’s atmosphere it started to burn and break up. It finally exploded about 30 kilometers (18.6 miles or 98,000 feet) above ground. It was estimated to have released an amount of energy equal to 500 kilotons (500,000 tons) of TNT. There was widespread damage and injuries, mostly caused by the massive shockwave that shot across the landscape.

The Chicxulub Event, a prehistoric asteroid strike, occurred about 65 million years ago. The asteroid estimated to have been 10 to 15 kilometers in size (6.2 – 9.3 miles in diameter) impacted Earth in what is now Mexico. The impact had life-ending effects. Field research in North Dakota in 2019 shows “simultaneous mass extinction of myriad species, combined with geological and atmospheric features consistent with the impact event.”

Here’s a term not heard often — maybe in a Sci-Fi film — Planetary Defense. NASA launched a satellite last November called Double Asteroid Redirection Test, aka, DART. Its purpose was to hit a smaller asteroid that is in rotation around a much larger asteroid. On Sept. 26, the DART mission was accomplished. It impacted the moonlet Asteroid Dimorphos. According to NASA, “DART is the first-ever mission dedicated to investigating and demonstrating one method of asteroid deflection by changing an asteroid’s motion in space through kinetic impact.” If proven that a large asteroid on a course to hit Earth can be deflected, even slightly, Planetary Defense will have played out successfully. Humanity will see what the future holds.

Back to Earth and our weather. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is showing our region has an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures for the three-month period of October, November and December 2022. As for precipitation, we may see above-normal precipitation for the same period. Let’s take a look further out into these predictions. A look at December, January, and February. The CPC is showing below-normal temperatures and still above-normal precipitation for our region into the new year.

You may consider getting snow shovels and blowers ready.

La Niña is still present in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. It appears that those cooler ocean temperatures in that region will continue through the winter months into early 2023. The Climate.gov website shares this regarding a La Niña event in winter: “During La Niña, the Pacific jet stream often meanders high into the North Pacific. Southern and interior Alaska and the Pacific Northwest tend to be cooler and wetter than average, and the southern tier of U.S. states — from California to the Carolinas — tends to be warmer and drier than average. Farther north, the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River Valleys may be wetter than usual.”

Currently, most of Grant and Lincoln counties are in Moderate Drought - D1 conditions, an increase from a few months ago. Grant is 70 percent D1, while Lincoln is just over 90 percent D1. Okanogan County is 26 percent DO, or Abnormally Dry. Douglas County is about 40 percent D1.

Here are weather data for September 2022 from my personal home weather station. Four days exceeded the 90˚F mark. The high temperature was 98.5 on the 1st, the low was 43.9 on the 17th, and the mean was 66. The all-time high was 104 way back in 1938, the all-time low as 30 in 1982, and the all-time mean is 63.8. Precipitation was on the dryish side — 0.07 inches of rain. The all-time high precipitation was 2.08 inches in 1985. The mean for September is 0.50 inches. Yes, September was officially dry.

A full Moon will occur on Oct. 9. It is called the Hunters Moon. For all the night sky watchers, Jupiter and Saturn will be visible throughout October.